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Sales plan

Concept of planning
Discrete and cyclical sales model
Create table "Sales plan"
Form elements and planning tools
Practical planning
Adjustments to plans using moving averages
Models of moving averages in Budget-Plan Express

Sales plan. Practical planning


Sales planning

Sales planning is the planning of prices and sales volumes for 36 months (the standard planning period), including taxes and insurance stock. The result of planning (price and quantity) is displayed in the "built-in" table (Grid). Entering data (prices and quantities) into the table can be done using data editing or using special planning tools. Calculations at the "level" of the plan are used to calculate the "procurement and standard costs" plan. Data on VAT and on the inventory of finished goods are calculated only after the implementation of the final calculations (project). To perform the calculation of stocks, the percentage of the stock of production per month should be indicated.

Adjustment for seasonal fluctuations is an adjustment of seasonally adjusted data. Adjustments for seasonal fluctuations allow for better planning of trends in prices and risks.

Seasonal fluctuations in demand is a regularly recurring changes in the level of demand depending on the current time period. To determine the coefficients of seasonal fluctuations, it is recommended to use observations of past years. As a rule, in most cases, one can observe the tendency of repeating the trends of seasonality. In contrast to the fluctuations in demand, seasonal price fluctuations should be considered taking into account the influence of inflation, changes in exchange rates and other external factors.

After completing the planning for all products, you need to complete the final calculation: "Data → Calculate → "Sales plan"". Same thing - F9.



Setting of seasonality

How to calculate the seasonality trend

Sales volume for the last year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sales volume for the period 1 500 1 350 1 200 1 200 900 600 600 600 900 1 050 1 200 1 350
Trend of seasonality (100 points scale) 100 90 80 80 60 40 40 40 60 70 80 90

To calculate the seasonality trend (for example, on a 100-point scale), take the sales trend for the last year (or the weighted average trend over the past few years). Then, in the line where we calculate the seasonality values, opposite the maximum value of the sales volume (this can be several values), put the number 100 (in this example, the maximum value in January). To calculate the values in other cells, you need to divide the value of the current cell by the maximum and multiply by 100. And so - for each cell, for example:

  1. Seasonality factor for February = 1350 / 1500 * 100 = 90
  2. Seasonality factor for March = 1200 / 1500 * 100 = 80
  3. Etc.

☛ Note, if you want to build a seasonal trend, for example, on a 10-point scale, then multiply it by 10, respectively.

Special tool - slider

To adjust the values of seasonality, use a special tool - the slider. The admissible values are from "0" to "+100" (when planning sales volumes) and from "-100" to "+100" (when planning prices). The sliders edit the seasonality values (monthly values in percent) during the annual cycle (12 months).

The values of the slider can be set with the mouse or the arrow keys (preliminary, activate the slider, hover the mouse, as shown in the picture).


Button Assignment

To determine the coefficients of seasonal fluctuations, it is recommended to use observations of past years. As a rule, in most cases, one can observe the tendency of repeating the trends of seasonality. Seasonal price fluctuations should be considered taking into account the influence of inflation


1. To set default values.

All periods of seasonality relating to sales by default are set to "100", and is related to price – value "0".

This is due, first of all, to the specifics of calculating trends in sales volumes and prices: prices are calculated as deviations from a given value.


2. Download trend settings from other products.

When this button is pressed, a list of products is offered, and when you select a product from the list, the seasonal trend of this product is loaded.


3. To save values.

When this button is pressed, the current seasonality settings are saved, unsaved seasonal settings will be lost when the form is exited.


4. Correlation trend.

When this button is clicked, a list of trends (affecting pricing) is proposed to adjust the price range, after which the values of a number of prices will be corrected. The method for adjusting price fluctuations is described in the following paragraphs of this section.


Planning methods

Note that the planning methods given here are designed to fill the rows quickly, mainly in cyclic models. In other cases, use normal editing - keyboard input, standard copy (Ctrl + C), insert (Ctrl + V), delete (Del), etc.

Go to the "Sales plan", select the product and call the editing form.
"sales Planning" (one click with the left mouse button, same F2):

Form Sales planning - correlating the trend function to continue the trend of


In the form of "Sales planning", start planning sales of the product in one of the ways:

1 way. "Continue trend" function

Use the "continue trend" function if the price for a product changes not so often, for example, every six months. This is the easiest and fastest way to fill a series of prices with a trend.

  1. step. Enter the value in the cell where planning begins.
  2. step. Click the right mouse button (above the cell), and select "continue trend". As a result of the function, the series will be filled to the end.

  3. The result of the "Continue trend" function:

    Use to continue the trend of


    Result of function execution to continue the trend. As a result of performing the series is filled to the end

  4. step. Select the next period when you want to set a new price. Do step 1,2 - from any subsequent period ...


2 way. Function "interpolation of the series by trend"

Function "interpolation of the series by trend" Use the function "interpolation of the series by trend", if you already have a filled series and you need to interpolate the values ​​of this series in the seasonal trend.

☛ Note that the function is called when the series already exists when the "Calculate" button is pressed.

  1. step. Enter the data using the "continue trend" function.
  2. step. If necessary, set the calculation start period.
  3. step. Click the "Calculate" button and select "interpolate the series by trend". As a result, the series will be filled to the end, taking into account seasonality factors.

  4. Steps 1-3 are performed separately - for planning either a price or an amount.


Example . Application of the function "interpolation of the series by trend"

Set a product price, "100", starting from the first month of the project,
as shown in the figure below:

Use interpolation of a number of trend-following

Let, target price will increase by 7% in 5-m and 10-m month. Install the appropriate values (in 5-m and 10-m month) in the seasonality trend of prices as shown in the figure below:

Setting values for trend prices

Click "Calculate" and execute point 2: "interpolation of the series by trend". As a result of executing, all the data of a number of prices, starting with 5-th and 10-th month, will increase by 7%.

Data of the calculation result are shown in table:

Interpolation of a number of the trend - years Jan Feb March Apr May June July AVG sen Oct Nov Dec
1 year. Price changes in 5 and 10 month 100 100 100 100 107 107 107 107 107 114 114 114
2 year. Price changes in 5 and 10 month 114 114 114 114 122 122 122 122 122 130 130 130
3 year. Price changes in 5 and 10 month 130 130 130 130 139 139 139 139 139 148 148 148

When using "series interpolation by trend", new values (prices or quantities) are calculated relative to the old values, taking into account the seasonality factors. When calculating this method, an identical algorithm is used - to calculate sales volumes and prices.


3 way. Sales planning "by yearly values"

Use the function "by annual values" for sales planning if you have the following sales parameters: for sales volumes - seasonality of demand and annual sales, for prices - seasonality of price fluctuations and prices for the beginning of the year.

☛ Note that the function is called when the series already exists when the "Calculate" button is pressed.

  1. step. Enter the annual sales volume (quantity), respectively, for 1,2 and 3 year.
  2. step. Adjust the seasonal factors of sales on a 100-point scale (from 0-100).


  3. step. Set the "Price forecast" switch and enter the prices for the beginning of the year, respectively, for 1,2 and 3 yeara.
  4. step. Adjust the seasonal price coefficients (from -100% to 100%).


  5. step. Click the "Calculate" button and select "Sales plan - by yearly values" .

Example. Consider a simple example of planning a cyclical sales plan for a contingent product. According to the forecasts of marketing expert estimates, when analyzing the regional market, the parameters of sales are determined: for sales volumes - seasonality and annual sales volumes (for 3 subsequent years), for prices - seasonality of price fluctuations and prices at the beginning of the year. That is, the marketing department prepared a table of seasonality factors (based on seasonality factors for past periods) and probabilistic estimates of annual sales volumes of product N::

  1. for 1 year - 10,000 units,
  2. for 2 yeara - 12,000 units,
  3. for 3 years - 15 000 units

Table shows the seasonal demand factors (sales volumes), in percentages:

Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Coefficients 100 90 80 80 60 40 40 40 60 70 80 90

As can be seen from the table that maximum sales are during the winter months, minimum in summer. When planning sales, you always need to consider probabilistic seasonal cycles predicted by taking into account observations of past and current changes in market conditions.

In addition, it is assumed that the first 3 months the company will be able to realize no more than 50% of the planned volume of sales, the next 2 months – not more than 70%, then 100% of the target sales.

The price of product N, to simplify the example, will be considered without VAT. Let the initial price of the product 100. Suppose that every six months (in the 1st and 6th months) the price will increase by 5%.

To plan the sales of product N, in the form of planning, follow these steps:

  1. step. To plan sales volumes, you need to set the option switch - "sales volume". Let's enter the annual sales volumes in the corresponding fields: 10,000, 12,000, 15,000 (for 1, 2 and 3 yeara).
  2. step. Set and save the seasonal coefficients (from the table). To set the exact seasonal values, use the arrow keys.
  3. step. For price planning, set the corresponding option - "price". We will enter the prices for the beginning of the year: 100, 110, 120 (for 1, 2 and 3 yeara).
  4. step. Set and save the price change for 5%, starting at 6 months. Pay attention, at setting of seasonal values ​​of the prices, in 7-12 (subsequent) months the values ​​will be set automatically. To set the exact seasonal values, use the arrow keys.
  5. step. Let's perform the calculation "by annual values", as shown in the figure:



  6. step. Using the formula (= number-n%), we will reduce sales in the first 3 months by 50%, the next two - by 30%, as shown in the figure:



  7. step. Finally, perform a final calculation of sales plan: Main menu → Data → Calculate → to Set the flag "sales plan". Same thing - F9 → Set flag "sales plan".

Table of the result of calculation of the "sales plan" for the product N:

Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 year 60 300 54 200 48 200 67 500 50 600 50 610 50 610 50 610 75 915 88 515 101 220 113 820
2 year 159 060 143 110 127 270 127 270 95 370 67 048 67 048 67 048 100 572 117 392 134 212 151 032
3 year 216 840 195 240 173 520 173 520 130 080 91 098 91 098 91 098 136 584 159 390 182 196 204 876

Sales planning tools in the "Budget-Plan Express" include additional options for price adjustments and forecasting - see "Adjustments to plans using moving averages" and "Sales plan. Models of moving averages".


Calculation Algorithms for Sales Planning "by Yearly Values"

Price calculation algorithm

In the result of the calculation of "by annual values," the price for the beginning of each year is taken as the basis for calculating the price of the trend, according to the formula:

    Pricen = 1 × Factorn,

    Where:
    Price n - the price in the n period.
    Price 1 - the price at the beginning of the year.
    Coefficient n - (percentage of seasonality) / 100 in the n period.

Permissible fluctuations of seasonal prices can be from -100% to +100%. Seasonality of prices, in fact is deviation from the original number in %.


The algorithm for calculating the quantity

As a result of the calculation of "by annual values," the annual sales volume (quantity) is distributed along a number, depending on the seasonality trend, according to the formula:

    Quantity n = Quantity year × Coefficient n , where
    Coefficient n = Seasonality n / ∑ Seasonality i ,

    Where:
    Quantity n - quantity in the n-th period.
    Quantity year - total annual quantity.
    Coefficient n - in the n-th period.

Please note, in the periods where the value of the seasonal trend are zero, the sales volume in this period will be equal to zero, that is, the program "believes" that in this period you had no sales.



Example of calculating the quantity.

Let the company plan to sell 100 units of production in a year. According to the observations of previous years, seasonal fluctuations for each month, according to a 100-point scale (100%), constitute a trend: Ai = {50, 70, 60, 70, 90, 10, 0, 30, 70, 70, 80, 100}.

  1. step. Enter the number 100 in the "annual sales -1, 2 and 3 year" fields (in this example, the annual sales volume).
  2. step. Set the values for seasonality, respectively: 50%, 70%, 60%, 70%, 90%, 10%, 0%, 30%, 70%, 70 %, 80%, 100% . To adjust the values of the sliders, you can use the arrow keys, pre-displaying the seasonality value (mouse hover).
  3. step. Click the "Calculate" button and select: "Calculate sales plan - by yearly values".

The calculation of the amount shown in the table:

Planning quantity - value Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Avg Sen Oct Nov Dec Total
1.Seasonal trend - on a 100-point scale 50 70 60 70 90 10 0 30 70 70 80 100 700
2. Estimated coefficient = Value of row 1 / 700 0,07 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,13 0,01 0,00 0,04 0,10 0,10 0,11 0,15 1,00
3. Quantity = 100 * Value of row 2 7 10 9 10 13 1 0 4 10 10 11 15 100


Import data. Edit

In addition to the above methods, the data can be imported, or simply enter values into the table.


Planning safety stock of finished products


To plan the stock of finished products, you need to go to the "Finished Products Accounting" tab and indicate the average monthly percentage of the insurance stock in the "Limit level of stock fears,% per month". After the final calculation, the insurance stock will be calculated in the table "Remains of finished goods at the beginning of the period".

Only "actualized" periods are available for editing.

In the table "Remains of finished goods at the beginning of the period" the following values are calculated:
  1. Price, weighted average (price without VAT)
  2. Calculation of residuals
  3. Calculation needs.

Kind of the tab "Accounting for finished products":

Planning safety stock of finished products


The result will appear in the table after performing the final calculation: "Data → Calculate → "Sales plan"". Same thing - F9.


Calculation of need

The need for production (purchases) is calculated by the identical formula:

    Requirement [i] = Sales [i] + (Stocks at the end of the period [i + 1] - Inventories at the beginning of the period [i] ) - Remains of the past period [0] ,

    Where i is the period.

Stocks at the end and at the beginning of the period are estimated values, while the "Remains of the past period" are the actualized value.


Calculation of the weighted average price

Regardless of the chosen accounting method, only the weighted average price (without VAT) is considered in the table "Finished goods balances at the beginning of the period".

To calculate the weighted average is performed step-by-step cyclic algorithm when the weighted average price, calculated in each i-th period, enters into a subsequent period, where is calculated according to the formula:


    AP [i] = (Amount of inventory at the beginning[i-1] * Suzana [i-1] + Number of purchases [i] * cost [i]) / (Quantity [i-1] + [i])

    Where AP – average price i period.




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